2021 QB Tiers revisited: Puzzling Patrick Mahomes, determined Derek Carr, cresting Kyler Murray and more (2024)

Patrick Mahomes has thrown more interceptions than all but two NFL quarterbacks this season. Aaron Rodgers is on the COVID-19 list. Russell Wilson has missed the past three games with a broken finger. Deshaun Watson remains a defendant in 22 lawsuits and has not played.

These were four of the five highest-ranked players in the 2021 version of my annual Quarterback Tiers survey, which published in late July featuring votes and insights from 50 league insiders. So much has transpired since publication that this is a compelling time to revisit the rankings.

I’ve checked in with some of the voters to get updated thoughts at the season’s midpoint, focusing on the most interesting quarterbacks among the 34 veterans included in the survey. This is not a re-ranking. No new votes were tabulated. But there was plenty to discuss.

Below you’ll find tier-by-tier discussion, with quarterbacks listed in the same tiers and order they were voted into before the season.

A Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.

Mahomes had 25 touchdown passes with one interception through nine games last season. His numbers were even better in some respects through the Kansas City Chiefs’ first nine games of the 2018 and 2019 seasons. The numbers are down this season — 20 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, about one-third of the usual expected points added (EPA) per pass play — as opponents have employed two deep safeties to take away big plays. Brady, Wilson and Kyler Murray are the top three quarterbacks in Pro Football Focus grading. Mahomes ranks 23rd, below Daniel Jones, Geno Smith and Tua Tagovailoa.

“Someone has to have a heart-to-heart with him, sit him down and ask what’s getting in the way,” one voter said. “Everything about it is fixable, but I think the No. 1 factor is the coach (Andy Reid) and player having a little more patience. That jump ball trying to throw over a guy in the red zone (against the Giants) was crazy.”

Another voter thought it might be tough having the sort of heart-to-heart conversation the other voter suggested.

“Some of his turnovers are just bad, like he is falling down throwing the ball,” this voter said, “but the problem is, he got away with it early in his career, so now he thinks, ‘Well, I can always get away with it — the no-look passes, that stuff.’ ”

The first voter said he marveled at Mahomes’ success in past seasons.

“We were talking about Kansas City a year ago and how reckless they were, how reckless Mahomes was with the ball, and you kept waiting for it to catch up with them,” this voter said. “Things do catch up with you, and it has caught up with them, and now it’s a mental thing with them. I don’t think there is anyone there who can grab him and say, ‘Hey, listen, this has been fun, but we have to zero in on what is keeping us from being as good.’ ”

A Tier 2 quarterback can carry his team sometimes but not as consistently. He can handle pure passing situations in doses and/or possesses other dimensions that are special enough to elevate him above Tier 3. He has a hole or two in his game.

Dak Prescott might be the Tier 2 quarterback voters would push into the top tier if forced to pick one at this stage of the season.

“Absolutely,” one voter said. “He has to just stay healthy.”

Prescott missed most of last season and one game already this season after never missing one to injury in the NFL previously.

“I would put him in the top five right now, the way he has played,” a voter said before the Cowboys lost to Denver, “and I think he’s getting better as he gets more comfortable on the ankle. He just looks comfortable, calm, confident, and he has obviously come out of the injury very good physically and mentally. He just seems to be in a really comfortable place with himself and the team.”

Josh Allen was the Tier 2 quarterback closest to achieving Tier 1 status over the summer. This is not a great week for a reassessment.

“I think he’s on the fringe,” one voter said. “Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes are going to go out and beat Jacksonville last week, take it on themselves to score more than six points.”

Bad weeks happen. Rodgers’ Packers lost 35-3 to New Orleans in Week 1. Mahomes’ Chiefs lost 27-3 to Tennessee. Prescott’s Cowboys trailed 30-0 against Denver.

Matthew Stafford’s previously scorching-hot Los Angeles Rams fell flat against the Titans last week, temporarily blunting Stafford’s ascent toward the top tier.

“Those were some interesting decisions the other night that you don’t often see, but it’s a long season,” a voter said of Stafford’s two interceptions against the Titans. “In a more stable environment, he is starting to show up week to week, where it was more of a struggle in terms of consistency in his past.”

Stafford needs more than nine games to win over some voters.

“There is always something holding me back with the guy,” another voter said. “This is an ultra-talented group with the Rams — great offense, great coach, which doesn’t make you a 1. I got a little more ‘show-me’ here as we get into when it gets tighter, when the games are bigger.”

Overall, quarterbacks in Tier 2 are outplaying their Tier 1 counterparts. Allen, Brady, Kyler Murray, Stafford and Lamar Jackson emerged this week with the best MVP odds.

“Lamar is throwing the ball better,” one voter said. “We will see in the playoffs, but he seems to have taken a step. That Monday night game (against Indianapolis) was impressive.”

Jackson’s Ravens have shifted toward the pass. They rank 11th on the Cook Index, which measures passing frequency on early downs in the first 28 minutes of games. Baltimore ranked 29th last season and 32nd the year before that. The change could reflect injuries at running back, but Jackson is justifying the shift also. He is completing 67 percent of his intermediate passes (10-19 yards past the line of scrimmage), up from 55 percent last season.

Downfield perimeter throws to wide receivers have also become more productive. Through nine games, Jackson has already surpassed his 2019 and 2020 full-season totals for completions, attempts, yards and TD passes targeting wide receivers outside the yard-line numbers and past the first-down marker.

Murray ranks second to Stafford in EPA per pass play, according to TruMedia. Arizona is one of two teams averaging at least 30 offensive points per game (Tampa Bay is the other). Questions about Murray’s ability to hold up over a full season persist as he misses time with injury. But he has clearly taken a positive step from a production standpoint.

“This year, Kyler has not had to rely on his legs as much because they have good people on the perimeter, and now you have Zach Ertz in the middle of the field,” a voter said. “They have backs who can carry the ball and take pressure off him. I just like the way he is going about things. He is making good decisions this year. He is controlling his emotions and the offense and just doing a really, really good job.”

Murray can make the miraculous appear routine, the way Mahomes has so frequently done.

“I have been proven wrong with Kyler this season, but time will take care of that,” said a voter who was less optimistic on Murray before the season. “He’s on a roll right now. The style of play, there are great highs and great lows. It has finally caught up to Mahomes, where some of that stuff he pulls out of his ass is going the other way. It is similar to me (with Murray).”

Voters were high on second-year pros Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow heading into the season, but they wanted to see more. Those things are still true.

A Tier 3 quarterback is a legitimate starter but needs a heavier running game and/or defensive component to win. A lower-volume dropback passing offense suits him best.

Derek Carr came very close to landing in Tier 2 as voters acknowledged his improvement last season. Carr currently leads Tier 3 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play and percentage of attempts gaining 15-plus yards.

“He has some up and down to his play, but let’s remember, no one is confusing that O-line with the Seven Blocks of Granite,” a voter said.

Carr has also won over voters in other ways.

“I just love the way the guy carries himself and how professional and just how well-spoken he has been through this (Henry) Ruggs stuff and (Jon) Gruden stuff,” a voter said. “If I am walking in the door as the Raiders’ new GM, I am thinking, ‘This is where it starts — I got the quarterback, and I know I got the guy who is the leader. He can help get this ship right.’ ”

Baker Mayfield and Carson Wentz are the other most interesting quarterbacks from Tier 3.

“I think Baker is trending the other way,” a voter said. “I had him as a 2, but think he is a borderline 3. They might really need the heavy run game around him and those backs around him to take the pressure off him so he is not throwing the ball 40 times a game. That has been good for (Ryan) Tannehill, and it could be good for Baker too.”

Wentz, after a rough start that included multiple injuries, has settled in with the Colts. His production through nine games is on pace with his production in Philadelphia during the 2019 season, before a disastrous 2020. Early in the current season, when Wentz was having some injury issues and other quarterbacks appeared revived after changing teams, one voter maintained Indy still could come out well ahead in the long term.

“It’s a long process,” this voter said in late September. “Indy got the steal of it, assuming that guy (Wentz) is what he was or a little less than that. Carolina got a much lesser commodity (in Sam Darnold). The Colts will get his head right and come out ahead in the long run.”

A Tier 4 quarterback could be an unproven player with some upside or a veteran who is ultimately best suited as a backup.

There was some thought entering the season that Darnold might improve with better players around him. That has not happened. Now he’s injured, as is Jameis Winston, who also didn’t do much while in the lineup to change perceptions about him, despite New Orleans’ winning record.

Jalen Hurts might be the most interesting player from this group. He landed in Tier 4 partly because there wasn’t enough information for voters to make an informed evaluation, and also because some thought he probably wouldn’t develop into a viable longer-term starter.

“Typical young quarterback without much game experience,” a voter said. “If the initial read is not clean, he is apt to bail on the play and use his feet, creating plays on the run. So many of the young quarterbacks — Fields, Trubisky, Wentz — look this way in the beginning.”

(Graphic: John Bradford / The Athletic; photos: Sarah Stier, Andy Lyons, Patrick Smith, Rich Schultz / Getty Images)