Blue Devils ready to turn page into Manny Diaz’s tenure,find out what they don’t yet know; Plus a preview of Friday night’s Elon-Dukegame
There is only so much preparation that can go into a football game — and, in the case of the opener, only so much preparation for the whole season.
Duke’s football team seemed to hit the ceiling a couple of weeks ago of enough preparation and ready to translate its work into games.
“(We) had a really good training camp,” coach Manny Diaz said earlier this week, “but ultimately, you reach that point where you’ve gotta go play somebody, you’ve gotta find out what you’re all about.”
It’s where the Blue Devils are until kickoff against Elon on Friday night.
Diaz takes over a program that was rejuvenated over the last two seasons, and then left in the lurch with Mike Elko’s departure to Texas A&M.
The “Elko Era” was over fast and Diaz’s days should be characterized early by a team that wants to play fast.
Duke’s offense under coordinator Jonathan Brewer is a spread, up-tempo system with some air-raid principles. Handing the keys over to Texas transfer Maalik Murphy and his cannon of a right arm, with a deep group of receivers, should lead to some fireworks.
“Speed. Play fast,” Brewer said, cutting off a question about what he feels the strength of the offense will be. “Get ready to play fast. That’s just what we’ve done on offense that last, what, 10 years. And I can tell you that we’ll play fast.”
Defensively, the “play fast” aspect applies to penetrating into the backfield as quickly as possible. It’s about disruption and negative plays, either in the form of tackles for loss or turnovers.
Of course, those are the plans.
Every season opener — ringing especially true for a new coaching staff — goes back to the Mike Tyson quote; everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
“You always want to see your team’s resolve,” Diaz said. “You can prepare them for everything but the one thing you can’t prepare them for is the real disappointment whenever the first bad break happens. How do they bounce back and how resilient are they?
“Until you get that shot across the face, now you see, ‘OK, do we put our gloves up? Or do we sink them?’”
Those answers are coming shortly.
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Here’s a primer on what you need to know for Friday night’s game:
Time: 7:30 p.m.
Location: Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham.
TV: ACC Network.
Announcers: Clay Matvik (play-by-play), Steve Addazio (analyst) and Justin Walters (sidelines).
Radio link: Recommended listening, per usual.
Forecast: Low-80s at kickoff, cloudy, minimal winds.
Series; last meeting: Duke leads 7-0-1; Duke won 52-13 in 2014.
Records: N/A, opener for each team.
Stat to watch: 8.5 | 8.3.
Those were the tackle-for-loss averages per game for Penn State and Texas State last season, respectively, where Diaz and defensive coordinator Jonathan Patke came from. They were second- and third-highest in the country.
Everything about the way Duke’s staff and players talk about their defense is that it’s going to seek out penetration and put opposing offenses behind the chains. It’s an opportunistic, attacking system.
“It’s not just the calls,” Patke said. “It’s the way that they attack and how our guys play the game. Obviously that’s a big emphasis on who we are.”
For a comparison, Duke averaged 5.4 TFLs in 2022 and 6.2 last season, which was tied for 74th and tied for 39th in the country, respectively.
Matchup to watch: Duke’s aerial attack vs. Elon’s secondary.
Keeping things in line with what we think Duke will look like, the Blue Devils’ offensive strength should sway toward passing yards.
A new quarterback with an electric arm (Murphy), throwing to one of the best receivers in the ACC (Jordan Moore), spreading it around to what might be a deep receiver corps, complemented by a couple of tight ends and running backs who are also threats in the passing game — it has the chance to be an explosive offense through the air.
Elon gave up 329 passing yards to Wake Forest in last year’s opener, and 300-plus in two other games — a loss to Campbell and win over Delaware.
Quote of the week: “That was hard to do. Just because when you recruit kids, you sign them, you coach them, you’re in the room with them, you’ve developed them and you want them to play well. And so, you want those guys to do well.
“I don’t know if you guys have seen the movie ‘Major League 2,’ I’m Lou Brown in the hospital bed trying to help them out and I can’t.” – Brewer on watching SMU’s season opener last weekend
Brewer was at SMU for the last two seasons; Duke plays the Mustangs, moving into the ACC this year, on Oct. 26.
Opposing offensive player to watch: Running back Rushawn Baker (No. 23).
Elon returns its quarterback (Matthew Downing) and top receiving threat (Chandler Brayboy), but the Phoenix had to replace its top rusher from a year ago.
Out is Jalen Hampton; in steps Baker, a transfer from Bucknell. Baker had 478 yards and seven touchdowns as a part-time starter for the Bison last year, and across three seasons he had a combined 1,359 yards and 15 touchdowns.
He’s listed at 6-foot, 225, so a size adjustment against an ACC team won’t exactly be necessary. Baker also caught 26 passes for 176 yards and two touchdowns at Bucknell.
Opposing defensive player to watch: Safety Caleb Curtain (No. 1).
Featured in this week’s 5 things to know article and worth repeating here: Curtain is a playmaker on Elon’s defense.
He’s listed at a position termed “Bandit” on Elon’s depth chart. The Phoenix will line him up in a few different places to free him up as a blitzer or to cover tight ends or running backs. Pro Football Focus had him taking 719 snaps last season; 378 in the box, 196 covering the slot, 126 at deep safety and 17 on the defensive line (and two at cornerback).
Young Blue Devil to watch: Safety DaShawn Stone (No. 8).
This might be the easiest pick of the season, at least in terms of knowing he’ll have ample opportunity.
Stone is going to start at safety in place of Jaylen Stinson, who is suspended for the first half because of a carried over targeting penalty from the second half of the Birmingham Bowl.
The 6-3, 190-pound Stone played in five games last season, retaining a redshirt. He was only on the field for 56 snaps.
But he was awarded the program’s Sonny Falcone Iron Duke Award, which is given to the developmental player who had the best fall in the weight room. It showed during fall camp; Stone is a big presence on the back end and, given Stinson’s first-half absence and it being his final season of eligibility, this could be a glimpse into Duke’s future at the position.
Don’t forget about: Wide receiver Eli Pancol (No. 4).
Self-explanatory here, right?
Pancol missed all of last season because of a gruesome injury in fall camp. He was back for the spring and should be a nice downfield threat in Duke’s spread, up-tempo offense.
In all likelihood, Moore will lead Duke in targets, catches and yards — he’s earned glowing praise from the coaching staff. What’s up in the air, though, is who among a deep receiver corps is second; and Pancol could wind up being Duke’s No. 2 option.
(Doing something a little different this year with this last part of previews. Instead of just predictions that didn’t actually predict who would win, I’ll break down what I think the formula will be for a Duke win or loss.)
What a Duke loss looks like: It’d obviously have to be a mistake-riddled game.
Every year, there are at least a couple of FCS-over-FBS upsets. But they’re few and far between for power conference teams.
Elon’s recent history against FBS teams has seen the Phoenix get down by a big score early; if that trend is fixed or reversed, the typical upset cliché applies — the longer it’s a close game, the more the underdog doesn’t feel like an underdog.
What a Duke win looks like: Open it up, air it out, go fast, get up big and stay up — those types of things.
There’s a lose-lose aspect to FCS games; even if Duke wins by 50, it’ll be taken with a grain of salt because it’s an opponent from a lower division. That shouldn’t be the case … and yet, c’est la vie.
I’d look for Duke to be pretty explosive on offense. It’s a new staff that knows how valuable it’ll be to generate fan interest and the best way to do that is putting up a big number in its debut.
